Autonomous vehicles have the potential to transform the global economy, with estimates suggesting they could impact GDP by up to 20% and save millions of lives.
Key Points
- Autonomous vehicles could impact global GDP by up to 20% and save 1.2 to 1.5 million lives.
- Enhanced safety and increased productivity in autonomous vehicles could result in a global productivity uplift of $17 trillion.
- The introduction of autonomous taxis could lead to $26 trillion in net GDP benefits by 2030, while reducing accidents.
- Electric vehicles are predicted to dominate the autonomous transportation market, leading to a drop in gas-powered vehicle income.
Autonomous vehicles have the potential to transform the global economy over the next decade, with estimates suggesting they could impact GDP by up to 20%, according to ARK Investment Management LLC. This dramatic shift is expected to result from the ability of driverless cars to reduce accident rates and transportation expenses.
Adjusting to surface street specific accident rates, compared to the “non-Autopilot” accident rate in Tesla’s safety report, FSD-equipped cars appear to be ~5X safer than manually driven Tesla cars and 18X safer than the average car in the US! Source: Ark investment management.… pic.twitter.com/wzoawl7AqX
— Fede Sandler (@FedexSTi) March 14, 2023
Projected GDP Benefits and Lives Saved
The introduction of autonomous taxis could lead to astounding net GDP benefits, amounting to $26 trillion by 2030, which is roughly 26% of the current size of the US economy. However, this economic transformation is not just about numbers; it is about saving lives. In the United States alone, autonomous cars could save between 30,000 and 35,000 lives, with a global estimate of 1.2 to 1.5 million lives saved.
While a decrease in accidents might result in a reduction of approximately $1 trillion per year in GDP due to decreased repairs, hospital stays, and insurance rates, the overall economic impact remains positive. Lives preserved and injuries reduced, along with the continued economic activity of individuals who would otherwise be incapacitated, have the potential to contribute an additional $3 trillion annually to global GDP.
Enhanced Safety and Increased Productivity
The passenger experience in autonomous vehicles is set to undergo a dramatic transformation, featuring enhanced safety and newfound free time. This change could lead to a global productivity uplift of approximately $17 trillion.
Due to their reduced running expenses and pricing, electric vehicles are predicted to dominate the autonomous transportation market. This shift could result in a yearly drop of $1.2 trillion in fuel and maintenance income for gas-powered vehicles.
Furthermore, the rise of driverless taxis may cause a decline in personal vehicle sales in urban areas, which would reduce GDP by nearly $1.8 trillion annually. However, the estimated $1 trillion in sales of driverless vehicles to fleet operators may partially offset this decline.
Potential Service Revenues and Net GDP Increase
The conversion of unpaid driver activity into measured economic activity by autonomous cars has the potential to generate around $9 trillion in service revenues every year. By 2030, personal autonomous travel could add a net $26 trillion to global GDP annually. This includes a potential increase of $30 trillion due to autonomous ride-hail service revenues and increased productivity, offset by a decrease of $4 trillion resulting from fewer accidents, lower gas-powered vehicle sales, and reduced fuel and maintenance costs.
ARK projects that autonomous ride-hail services could contribute around 2-3 percentage points to global GDP per year by 2030. This impact is predicted to surpass the combined boosts delivered by the steam engine, robots, and IT. Consumers are expected to be the greatest beneficiaries, as transportation costs decrease, leading to an increase in purchasing power. Additionally, individuals will gain approximately 10 weeks of additional free time, once the burden of unpaid driving is eliminated.
End Note
The driverless vehicle revolution is not solely about technological advancements; it is about reshaping the global economy and improving lives. As we approach 2030, the impact of this transformative technology will become increasingly apparent and its implications on society and businesses profound.
