The Supply Milestone That Was Always Coming
Bitcoin has just passed a significant marker—95% of its total 21 million coin supply has now been mined. That leaves about 2.05 million Bitcoin still to be created, which might sound like a lot, but when you consider the timeline, it’s actually quite limited.
I think what’s interesting here isn’t so much the number itself, but what it represents. The system is working exactly as Satoshi Nakamoto designed it nearly 17 years ago. The predictable supply schedule has been ticking along through multiple market cycles, regulatory changes, and technological shifts.
Why This Might Not Move Markets Immediately
Experts I’ve spoken with suggest this milestone probably won’t cause any immediate price spikes. The supply dynamics have been known for years, and markets tend to price in information that’s widely available. It’s more of a narrative event than a direct catalyst.
Thomas Perfumo from Kraken mentioned that Bitcoin’s annual supply inflation is now around 0.8% per year. That’s significantly lower than most fiat currencies, which is part of the appeal for people looking at Bitcoin as a store of value. He called it a reminder of Bitcoin’s “resistance against debasement and intervention.”
Jake Kennis from Nansen made a good point about the timeline. The remaining 5% will take well over 100 years to reach full circulation because of the halving events. So while scarcity is increasing, it’s happening gradually.
The Real Story: Bitcoin’s Predictability
What strikes me is how reliable Bitcoin’s supply schedule has been. In a world where central banks can print unlimited money, Bitcoin’s predictable, diminishing supply stands in stark contrast. The last Bitcoin isn’t expected to be mined until around 2140—that’s more than a century from now.
Marcin Kazmierczak from RedStone noted that what matters more than hitting arbitrary percentage thresholds is the broader context: macroeconomic conditions, adoption trends, and regulatory clarity. Those factors likely have more immediate impact on price than supply milestones.
Miners Face New Economic Reality
The dwindling supply does create pressure on miners, who are already dealing with reduced block rewards from the most recent halving in April 2024. The reward dropped to 3.125 Bitcoin per block, and as supply growth slows further, miners will need to rely more on transaction fees.
This represents a fundamental shift in mining economics. We’re moving from block reward-dependent miners to transaction-fee-dependent miners. That creates pressure for consolidation and efficiency improvements in the mining sector.
Perhaps the most telling aspect of this milestone is that it’s happening exactly when Bitcoin’s creator said it would. The system is maturing, the supply is becoming increasingly scarce, and the narrative of digital scarcity continues to play out as designed.
