Bitcoin has made a yearly high of $13900 and now trading around $8300. Bitcoin has breached the triangle pattern downwards and the price dropped more than $1000 in a single day on September 25.
The price dropped from $9600 and made a low of $7700. The volatility is now over and Bitcoin is now trading in a very tight range of $7800 to $8400. Altcoins are taking advantage of bitcoin stability and increase more than 20 percent in the past two weeks.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin price gets a good support by the 100 MA (Moving Average) on the weekly chart. Bitcoin has tested the 100 weekly MA two times and gets a quick bounce from the support.
The 100 MA is at $7700 levels and becomes the support. You can see the 100 MA on the chart in blue colour. If a heavy sell-off will happen then the next major support is the 200 MA. The 200 MA is now around $4700 levels. Bitcoin price takes the 200MA support back in November when the price drops from $6100 to $3200.
The market conditions favour the bears in the short term. The last defence line for bulls is the 100MA if price breaks the 100MA we will see $6000-$6500 levels. The last major support is the 200MA at $4700 levels.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction for Short Term
The short time period trends are helpful to find out what will be going to happen in the next weeks.
The 4-hour charts show that Bitcoin is now trading in a tight range and continue to test the support and resistance zones. Our short term bitcoin price prediction is that as long as bitcoin is able to trade above $7800 levels, bulls will keep trying to push the price higher.
The main resistance zone is $8700-$8900. The Bulls have tested the resistance zone and pump the price to $8750 but unable to hold the levels. The price is rejected from the resistance and a quick sell-off will drop the price to $8200 levels.
Bullish Scenario
Bulls are looking to hold the price above $8,000 and test the resistance zones. The 200 MA on daily chart around $8750. The 200 daily MA is acting as resistance and bulls needs to push the price above it to bring more buyers.
The chart shows that higher high and higher low are formed and bulls are looking to test again the 200 MA resistance.
A push above the $9000 will trigger the same movement that will happen at $4000 breakout on 1 April. There are a lot of buyers that are waiting for $9000 breakout and we will see huge volume after that.
The On Balance Volume indicator (OBV) on the 4-hour chart shows that the buying volume is higher than the selling volume. This indicates that big players are accumulating in the zone.
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Bearish Scenario
The death crossover is likely to happen in the next 2-3 weeks. Death crossover means 50 MA will cross the 200 MA in the downward direction. This is a bearish sign and traders also keeping an eye on that.
Bulls can avoid the cross over by pumping the price above 50MA and 200 MA. The 50MA is now around $9400 levels. If the death crossover happens then there may be a quick sell-off and the price will go in the $6000-$6500 range.
Bitcoin Accumulation Going On
The report also backs that big players are continuously accumulating bitcoin. The recent data from Glassnode shows that the number of bitcoin addresses holding more than 1000 BTC is increasing continuously from Q4 2018.
The data shows that after the massive drop from $6100 to $3200, the number of bitcoin addresses more than 1000 BTC increased rapidly.
This type of movement is not shown since 2017. Bitcoin price makes an all-time high of $19970 on December 16. The number of bitcoin addresses holding more than 1000 BTC will drop from December 2017 to November 2018.
The data shows that there is a slight decrease in the number of bitcoin addresses holding more than 1000 BTC when Bitcoin is trading above $11,000. That means the big players are taking profits and ready to buy at lower prices.
The majority of those bitcoin addresses has average cost less than the current price. According to the research, the average holding price of these wallets is around $6000, that means they are still in profit. They will take advantage of every drop in price to accumulate more bitcoin.
The accumulation started from Q4 2018 after the massive sell-off that drop the price to $3200 levels. The same interest is seen around the $8000 levels, that doesn’t mean that bitcoin price will fly in the upcoming months this is just compared to the previous cycle.
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Halving is Coming
The most bullish event of Bitcoin is coming. Bitcoin halving is likely to happen on May 2020. Bitcoin halving is the event that happens in every 4 years and reduces the inflation rate of newly generated coins.
At the time of writing bitcoin block reward is 12.5 BTC that means the miner who verifies the block will receive 12.5 BTC as a reward. The block reward will reduce to 6.25 BTC after the halving of May 2020. This will reduce the supply of newly generated coins in the market and there are more chances that price will fly after that.
If you check the Bitcoin chart, you will find that after the halving of 2012 Bitcoin price increase from $11 to $1100, that is 100x return.
Bitcoin is around $600 at the time of 2016 halving and Bitcoin made an all-time high of $19700 on December 2017. That is around 33x return.
The same may happen after the halving of May 2020. The hashrate is increasing that means new miners are joining the Bitcoin network to accumulate as much bitcoin as possible before halving.
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Note: The above are the views of the author and not financial advice. Bitcoinik is not responsible for any profit and loss. You should do research at your end before making any financial decision.
