Bitcoin’s next halving in mid-2024 nears as 76% of supply held by long-term holders approaches all-time high, indicating potential market shifts in late 2024 or 2025.
Key Points
- Bitcoin is approximately 85% through the time since its last halving in May 2020.
- The upcoming Bitcoin halving is anticipated in mid-April 2024.
- Currently, 76% of BTC supply is retained by Long-Term Holders (LTHs), nearing the All-Time High (ATH) seen in 2015.
- The Bitcoin market is expected to witness sideways trends until the halving, with significant price actions likely post-Q4 2024.
The cryptocurrency community is buzzing as Bitcoin’s next halving, scheduled for mid-2024, nears, occupying the minds of investors. Historically, mature bull markets have not manifested until at least a year after a halving event.
Currently, the Bitcoin halving progress stands at 85%. Meanwhile, the amount of Bitcoin held by Long-Term Holders (LTHs) is near its all-time high, historically indicative of being near a macro bottom and the early phases of a new cycle.
Not sure about $12,000 , but what if $48000 till Halving ?? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/Y3ziGTmbp1
— Mags (@thescalpingpro) September 24, 2023
Long-Term Holder Dynamics
Long-term holders, or “hodlers,” typically retain their assets through market lows, with the most significant increase in holdings occurring during pronounced bear markets.
These investors, characterized by their “strong hands,” are disinclined to sell even as BTC prices plummet, anticipating eventual market rebounds.
Contrastingly, as bull markets unfold, long-term holders often become inclined to sell, capitalizing on surging BTC prices.
This results in a considerable reduction in the supply held by LTHs and an influx of Short-Term Holders (STHs), eager to leverage rapid gains.
Predicted Market Trends
Based on previous patterns, LTHs’ supply tends to peak several months before a halving and experiences a gradual decline until several months post-halving, with a significant dip occurring approximately six months after the event, marking the entrance into a mature bull market.
Given the halving is 85% complete, and considering past trends of similar BTC price actions during the concluding 15% of the cycle, the market is likely to experience sideways trends until mid-2024.
Significant market movements may not materialize until the last quarter of 2024 or 2025.
To Sum it All Up….
If historical patterns are mirrored, the cryptocurrency market might witness roughly a year of sideways movement.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving may not have an instantaneous impact on BTC’s price, with its ramifications possibly becoming evident in late 2024 and 2025.
This forecast aligns with trends observed in the supply held by long-term holders, with the indicator nearing its all-time high.
A reversal in this trend, moving into a distribution phase, will likely take about 12 months. The commencement of LTHs selling post-halving will signify the onset of the next cryptocurrency bull run.
