With Bitcoin’s (BTC) price reaching $38,000 for the first time since the crypto winter last year, the crypto asset is now at a crossroads, with contrasting predictions shaping discussions about its future.
Popular BTC critic Peter Schiff, who serves as the Chief Economist at Europac, a financial services company, believes that the recent surge, propelling BTC/USD to 18-month highs, might be short-lived, thereby warning investors of a potential crash before the anticipated launch of the United States’ first bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in early 2024.
Schiff’s Persistent Criticism
Unlike gold, which he passionately advocates for, Schiff strongly believes that bitcoin’s intrinsic value is bound to dwindle, eventually hitting zero. According to him, people are only interested in holding the cryptocurrency to sell it later at a higher price, likening it to a speculative bubble waiting to burst.
Despite the recent market recovery, Schiff believes a market correction is possible even before the ETF becomes a reality next year.
In a recent survey conducted on November 9 on X, the popular BTC critic presented two possible scenarios for a bitcoin “crash” – one before the ETF launch and another after.
Only 8.9% of the respondents anticipated a market crash before the potential ETF approval, 23% foresaw a crash post-ETF launch, and 68% chose to buy and wait.
Despite 68% of respondents choosing the option to “Buy and HODL until the moon,” Schiff remained steadfast in his belief. According to him, those buying into the rumor of positive ETF developments might not profit if they wait for the actual announcement.
“That is why the people who bought the rumor won’t actually profit if they wait for the fact to sell,” he wrote on X.
While the broader market is buzzing with optimism, especially with the potential ETF approval on the horizon, Schiff’s cautionary stance serves as a reminder that not everyone sees smooth sailing for BTC.
Institutional Optimism and Technical Forecast
In sharp contrast to Schiff’s prediction of a potential market downturn, institutional sentiment presents a more optimistic outlook.
Last week, AllianceBernstein, a notable asset management firm, foresaw a significant surge in BTC prices next year, especially after the upcoming halving in April, projecting a rise to $150,000.
The firm’s analysts anticipate a gradual increase in ETF flows post-halving, challenging the prevailing expectation of a cycle peak in 2024.
“We believe early flows could be slower and the build-up could be more gradual, and post-halving is when ETF flow momentum could build, leading to a cycle peak in 2025 and not 2024,” said the analysts.
According to AllianceBernstein analysts, the recent surge in BTC prices can be attributed to the ETF approval news, with expectations of a measured response post-launch.
In line with AllianceBernstein’s positive outlook, technical analysts observe an inverted head and shoulders pattern on bitcon’s 15-minute time frame, a traditional sign of a continued upward trend. This pattern suggests a potential approach to the minor resistance level of $37,185, with eyes set on the major daily resistance at $40,000.
The analysts proposed a trading strategy for investors looking to capitalize on this prediction, recommending entering a long trade at $37,185, with a carefully placed stop loss at $36,272. The proposed plan also outlined multiple take-profit levels at $38,000, $39,000, and $40,000 over the next 1-3 weeks, offering a balanced risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3.