Bitcoin’s 2025 Gains Wiped Out
Bitcoin has completely erased all its gains for 2025, falling below the $93,000 mark on Monday for the first time in nearly seven months. The cryptocurrency was recently trading at $92,123 after dropping 2.3% in the past day and about 13% over the past week according to CoinGecko data. Trading volume for BTC has more than doubled in the past day, jumping to $114 billion according to CoinGlass.
This decline has triggered significant liquidations in the derivatives market. About $335 million worth of Bitcoin derivatives contracts have been liquidated in the past day, pushing total crypto market liquidations to $725 million over the last 24 hours. That’s quite a substantial amount of forced selling pressure hitting the market.
Technical Breakdown and Analyst Concerns
Analysts at QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto trading firm, noted that Bitcoin’s break below the 50-week moving average and a weekly close under $100,000 for the first time since May 4 have “cemented a more cautious tone across digital asset markets.” They pointed out that in a space where narrative often drives price, talk of the four-year cycle nearing its end has only added to the prevailing bearish sentiment.
The QCP team specifically highlighted $92,000 as a critical support level for BTC, noting that this price served as a lower bound late last year and early this year. As of this writing, Bitcoin is now very close to breaking that barrier, which makes the situation quite precarious.
Four-Year Cycle Uncertainty
The QCP analysts alluded to the end of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced what’s called a halving event roughly every four years. In the interim periods, it usually experiences a significant price drawdown about 12 to 18 months after each halving. After the most recent April 2024 halving, BTC neared the end of that window in October.
This timing creates some confusion in the market. Leading up to October, many analysts said the four-year cycle had ended. But now, some analysts are saying it’s not quite over—just delayed. I think this uncertainty about where we are in the cycle contributes to the current market fragility.
Market Sentiment and Technical Factors
The QCP analysts noted that the $92,000 region also coincides with an unfilled CME gap, which could increase the odds of a short-term technical bounce if tested. However, they cautioned that “dense overhead supply could limit the strength of any rebound.” They added that rising macro uncertainties and sluggish return of liquidity to crypto markets mean “the picture remains fragile even with the U.S. government now officially reopened.”
The CME gap they mentioned refers to a difference in the spot price for Bitcoin—which never stops trading—and the price when the closing bell rang for CME Bitcoin derivatives contracts on Friday afternoon. These gaps often get filled, but it’s not guaranteed.
Market sentiment appears quite bearish currently. Users on Myriad, a prediction market, are now overwhelmingly certain that BTC will dip as low as $85,000 sooner than it can climb to $115,000 again. Users now think there’s a 63% chance that BTC will dive to $85,000, a jump of 30% in the past day alone. That’s a significant shift in sentiment over a very short period.
Despite the U.S. government shutdown ending last week—becoming the new longest shutdown on record after dragging on for 43 days—the macroeconomic picture still hasn’t clarified enough to restore investor confidence. Perhaps we’re seeing the effects of broader economic uncertainty finally catching up with crypto markets after a period of relative resilience.
