Bitcoin’s price has been bouncing around quite a bit lately, and honestly, it’s been a little hard to keep up. After dipping below $108,800 earlier this week, it’s managed to climb back to around $112,800 as of now. That’s a decent recovery, but it’s still not exactly smooth sailing ahead.
Some of that bounce seems tied to what’s happening in the wider market. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, and Nvidia—you know, the chip giant everyone’s watching—posted stronger-than-expected earnings. That kind of optimism tends to spill over, even into crypto.
Short-Term Holders Could Pose a Problem
But here’s the thing. A lot of people who bought Bitcoin in the last few months are still sitting on losses. According to Glassnode, the average purchase price for coins held between one and three months is somewhere between $113,600 and $115,600. That means a lot of those investors might be itching to sell just to break even if the price climbs back toward those levels.
It creates a kind of ceiling, at least for now. Any move up is likely to run into selling from people just trying to get out without a loss. Not exactly the fuel you want for a sustained rally.
Conflicting Signals From the Market
Right now, the signals are a bit all over the place. Spot trading demand seems pretty neutral, maybe even leaning a little negative. But then you look at the ETF side of things, and it’s a different story.
Timothy Misir from BRN pointed out that Bitcoin and Ether ETFs saw hundreds of millions in inflows just in the past day. Plus, you’ve got companies—and even governments—snapping up Bitcoin faster than miners can produce it. Japanese firm Metaplanet, for instance, just announced plans to raise a huge amount of money specifically to buy more BTC.
So there’s this weird tension. Short-term traders might be nervous, but bigger players are still accumulating. It makes the next move tough to call.
Where Things Might Find a Floor
If the price does slip again, a lot of people are watching the $107,000 mark. Glassnode’s data suggests that’s the average cost basis for the six-month holder cohort. If we drop and hold below that, it could spook a larger group of investors into selling, which might push things down further.
For the moment, though, things feel fragile. Not necessarily bearish, just… uncertain. The path of least resistance isn’t super clear, and everyone’s kind of waiting to see which way it breaks.
