Recently, Glassnode’s blockchain data analytics platform detected a sudden shift in the capital, with the collapse of FTX, pointing to a notable transition in the cryptocurrency market. Long-term holders appear to be transferring coins to fresh buyers, suggesting a change in the market landscape.
The alteration in HODL patterns observed in past cycles could be indicative of a potential reversal in trends. Despite the losses caused by the CFTC‘s targeting of Binance and the recent false Interpol news, Bitcoin prices have since recovered. At present, the markets remain in a state of consolidation.
Bitcoin Cycle Shift
On April 3, Glassnode unveiled its RHODL metric – a ratio designed to measure the relative wealth held by long-term holders (6m-2y) compared to short-term holders (1d-3m). This ratio is intended to provide insight into the shift between hodling and distribution, the company stated.
The structure of the current market points to a significant drop, suggesting that BTC is transitioning from long-term to short-term holders at an increasing rate since the closure of FTX. Furthermore, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio was also examined. This ratio is used as a measure to evaluate the collective unrealized profit multiple within the coin supply.
The current metric is showing a value of 1.4, which is in line with the recovery phase, according to Glassnode. An Accumulation Trend Score also suggests that the markets are in the process of recovering.
A Supply Net Position Change metric was also utilized to assess the net movement of coins between wallets with limited transaction histories. This metric has seen an increase of 36,600 BTC per month, suggesting growth in confidence in the asset.
BTC Price Outlook
Recently, Bitcoin prices have seen a 2.7% increase, reaching a high of $28,629 this week. Despite negative reports and regulatory pressures, the market has not been affected. The Bitcoin fear and greed index has dropped to ‘greed’, suggesting a potential correction may be on the horizon.