Render’s AI Rally Meets Technical Resistance
Render has been one of the standout performers in the AI crypto sector lately, gaining about 85% over the past week. That’s a pretty significant move, especially when you consider the broader AI category is up around 18% during the same period. At first glance, everything looks positive—momentum has returned, capital flow improved, and the price action seems convincing.
But when you dig into the technical details, the picture becomes more complicated. I think this is where things get interesting, because surface-level gains don’t always tell the full story.
The Bearish Structure Still Holds
Despite this sharp rebound, Render is still trading inside a descending channel that’s been in place since early October. A descending channel forms when price makes lower highs over time, which typically indicates sellers remain in control of the broader trend. The recent rally pushed Render toward the upper boundary of that channel, but the price failed to break through.
What’s telling is that this rejection happened despite the trendline having only two clear touchpoints, making it relatively weak resistance. Yet sellers still defended it. You can see this in the daily candles themselves—recent candles show long upper wicks, which signal selling pressure. Buyers pushed the price higher, but sellers responded quickly near the resistance, forcing the price back down.
Capital flow data does show this wasn’t a weak bounce. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator trended higher while the Render price moved lower between October and early January, showing accumulation during the downtrend. As the price broke higher, CMF also broke above its descending trendline and moved back above zero. So the rally had real capital support, but perhaps not enough force to reverse the broader downtrend.
Buying Pressure Shows Concerning Decline
Here’s where things get more concerning. Over the past 24 hours, Render exchange outflows dropped from roughly 203,000 tokens to about 49,000 tokens. That’s a 76% decline, showing a sharp slowdown in buying pressure just as the price hit resistance. Exchange flow balance tracks tokens moving off exchanges—high outflows usually signal buying and long-term holding, while falling outflows often point to slowing demand or rising profit-taking.
At the same time, momentum indicators are flashing caution signals. The Relative Strength Index has formed a higher high, while the Render price is close to forming a lower high. This creates what’s called a hidden bearish divergence, a pattern that often signals momentum is weakening even as price remains elevated.
This divergence isn’t confirmed yet though. Confirmation would occur if the next daily candle closes below $2.48, thereby locking in the lower-high structure. If that happens, it would suggest the rally is losing strength rather than building it.
Key Price Levels to Watch
With trend resistance and momentum signals colliding, the price levels now matter more than indicators. For the bullish case to regain control, Render needs a clean daily close above $2.56. That level would break the descending channel resistance and open the path toward $2.93. Only above that zone would the broader structure begin to turn bullish.
If the bearish signals play out, downside risk increases quickly. Initial support sits near $2.05, which would imply a pullback of roughly 14%. A deeper move could extend toward $1.80, and in a stronger correction, even $1.59.
Render may be powering the AI rally, but the charts show the move is being tested at a critical point. Capital flow helped start the rally, but momentum and demand now need to follow through. Whether further upside remains depends not on how fast Render has moved, but on whether it can finally break free from the trend that has capped it for months.
It’s a classic case of technical resistance meeting fundamental momentum. The AI narrative is strong, but technical structures have their own logic. Sometimes they align, sometimes they don’t. Right now, they seem to be telling slightly different stories.
