RENDER’s AI Sector Rally Meets Technical Resistance
RENDER has been one of the standout performers in the AI crypto sector over the past week, with its price surging nearly 85%. That’s quite a move, especially considering the broader AI category rose only about 18% during the same period. At first glance, everything looks positive—momentum has returned, capital flow improved, and the price action appears strong.
But when you look closer at the technical structure, things get more complicated. I think there’s a story here that’s not immediately obvious from the surface numbers.
The Bearish Channel Still Controls the Trend
Despite this impressive rally, RENDER remains trapped within a descending channel that’s been in place since early October. This pattern forms when prices make lower highs over time, which typically indicates sellers maintain control of the broader trend. The recent surge pushed RENDER toward the upper boundary of this channel, but it failed to break through.
What’s interesting is that this rejection happened despite the trendline having only two clear touchpoints, making it relatively weak resistance. Yet sellers still managed to defend it. You can see this in the daily candles—those long upper wicks tell a story of buying attempts being quickly met with selling pressure near resistance levels.
Capital flow data from the Chaikin Money Flow indicator shows something worth noting though. While RENDER’s price moved lower between October and early January, the CMF actually trended higher. That suggests accumulation was happening during the downtrend. When the price finally broke higher, CMF also broke above its descending trendline and moved back above zero.
So the rally had real capital support behind it, but perhaps not enough force to reverse the broader downtrend structure.
Buying Pressure Shows Concerning Decline
Here’s where things get more concerning. Exchange flow balance data shows a sharp drop in buying pressure just as RENDER hit resistance. Over the past 24 hours, exchange outflows—which typically signal buying and long-term holding—dropped from roughly 203,000 tokens to about 49,000 tokens. That’s a 76% decline.
At the same time, momentum indicators are flashing warning signs. The Relative Strength Index has formed a higher high while the price is close to forming a lower high. This creates what technical analysts call a hidden bearish divergence, a pattern that often signals momentum is weakening even as price remains elevated.
This divergence isn’t confirmed yet. Confirmation would require the next daily candle to close below $2.48, locking in that lower-high structure. If that happens, it would suggest the rally is losing strength rather than building it.
Key Price Levels to Watch
With these conflicting signals, specific price levels become particularly important. For the bullish case to regain control, RENDER needs a clean daily close above $2.56. That level would break the descending channel resistance and potentially open the path toward $2.93. Only above that zone would the broader structure begin to look more bullish.
On the flip side, if bearish signals play out, downside risk increases quickly. Initial support sits near $2.05, which would imply a pullback of roughly 14%. A deeper move could extend toward $1.80, and in a stronger correction, even $1.59.
RENDER’s performance has been impressive, no question about it. The token has powered much of the AI sector’s recent strength. But technical analysis suggests this move is being tested at a critical point. Capital flow helped start the rally—now momentum and demand need to follow through.
Whether further upside remains depends not on how fast RENDER has moved, but on whether it can finally break free from the trend that has capped it for months. The next few days should provide clearer signals about which direction this goes.
