Ethereum’s sitting in a pretty precarious spot right now. The daily chart turned bearish after dropping below $3,715, and traders need to watch the $4,000 level closely because losing that support could get ugly fast.
Right now, the $3,900 to $4,000 zone is the last line of defense keeping recovery hopes alive. If Ethereum breaks below that range, analysts think it could tumble all the way down to $3,400 over the next week or two.
On the upside, bulls are facing serious resistance. The $4,250 and $4,472 levels line up with Fibonacci retracement points, and the local high at $4,755 needs to get broken before anyone can say the market structure flipped bullish again.
There are some positive signs, though. Exchange outflows show investors are moving their ETH into self-custody, with Binance’s supply ratio hitting a multi-month low of 0.033. That usually means people are planning to hold long-term rather than sell. Plus, Bhutan just anchored their national digital identity system on Ethereum, which is pretty bullish news.
But the warning signs are there too. The On-Balance Volume indicator dropped below December 2024 highs even though price hasn’t closed below $4,000 yet on the weekly chart. That suggests demand has been slowing down recently. The RSI is also stuck below the neutral 50 level.
If the weekly close drops below $3,712, bears could push this all the way down to $3,100.
Conclusion
Ethereum faces a critical $3,900-$4,000 support test with a potential drop to $3,400 if broken, while bulls struggle against $4,250-$4,472 resistance despite positive exchange outflow signals.
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