Bitcoin’s Cautious Climb
Bitcoin spent November 12, 2025, hovering between $104,779 and $105,153, staying near the top of its daily range of $102,461 to $105,257. The cryptocurrency maintained a market cap of $2.09 trillion with $64.60 billion in 24-hour trading volume, showing what I’d call cautious optimism in the market.
Looking at the bigger picture, bitcoin remains in a broader downtrend after falling from its $124,220 high to a low of $98,898. There’s some evidence of a possible double bottom forming around the $99,000 level, with recent green candles suggesting an attempted recovery. But the volume tells a different story—it’s been fading as prices rise, which makes me question how strong this bullish sentiment really is.
Mixed Signals Across Timeframes
The 4-hour chart shows more constructive action, with bitcoin climbing from $99,192 to $107,465 in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Even after dipping to $103,000, the quick recovery suggests traders are still looking for buying opportunities. That $103,000–$104,000 support zone is holding for now, but if it breaks, the short-term uptrend could unravel pretty quickly.
On the hourly chart, things look more enthusiastic with a sharp rebound from $102,442 to $105,500. Green volume spikes support the positive mood, indicating shorter-term traders are pushing their advantage. But that $105,500 resistance level is proving stubborn—it’s acting like a barrier that needs significant volume to break through.
Technical Indicators Show Uncertainty
Most oscillator indicators are sitting in neutral territory. The RSI at 45, stochastic at 39, CCI at -56, ADX at 26, and awesome oscillator at -4,800 all suggest indecision. Momentum readings at -5,506 show some directional bias, but the MACD at -2,271 leans toward weakness.
Moving averages tell a familiar story of short-term strength versus longer-term skepticism. The 10-period EMA and SMA around $104,000 provide support, but from the 20-period through 200-period, both exponential and simple moving averages point downward above $106,000. Without a confident close above $110,000 backed by strong volume, the current trend remains vulnerable to turbulence.
Potential Scenarios Ahead
If bitcoin can defend the $103,000–$104,000 support and break above $105,500 with conviction, we might see a move toward $110,000 resistance. Sustained volume on upward moves and confirmation of the double bottom pattern would help shift momentum toward a broader recovery.
But if support at $103,000 fails—especially with those longer-term moving averages pressing down—we could see a retest of $99,000 or lower. With momentum indicators conflicted and volume fading on rebounds, this current bounce risks being temporary unless bulls show stronger follow-through.
It’s one of those situations where the market seems to be waiting for something more decisive. The technical picture is mixed, and traders appear to be watching both the resistance above and support below before committing to a clear direction.
