Frank Cappelleri, the founder of CappThesis, has been watching Bitcoin’s charts closely, and he’s seeing something interesting. Something that, if it plays out, could signal a pretty strong move upward for the cryptocurrency.
He points to a pattern that’s been forming over recent weeks—what technical analysts call an “inverse head-and-shoulders.” It sounds complex, but the basic idea is that it’s often a sign that a downtrend is reversing. According to Cappelleri, this structure suggests the possibility of a meaningful uptrend.
Bitcoin and the Broader Market Dance
One of the key things Cappelleri emphasizes is how tied Bitcoin has become to traditional markets, especially the S&P 500. He notes that while they don’t move in lockstep every single day, prolonged divergences are actually pretty rare. “Sometimes Bitcoin leads, sometimes the S&P 500 does,” he says.
He points to this year as a perfect example. Bitcoin peaked in January and then fell—a move that preceded a similar slide in the stock index. Then, both assets found a bottom around April. Lately, Bitcoin has pulled back from its August high, even as the S&P has held strong. That disconnect is something he’s watching.
A Potential Path for the Price
So, what does this inverse head-and-shoulders pattern actually suggest? Cappelleri places the neckline of the pattern just below $117,000. If Bitcoin can push above that, the classic technical target sits around $127,600. And if things really get moving? Well, he thinks a run toward $142,000 isn’t out of the question.
He’s noticed that Bitcoin has already tested this key area twice recently and managed to bounce back. That reminds him of a similar setup last November, which did indeed trigger a strong bullish wave. There’s also the historical tendency for Bitcoin to perform better in the last few months of the year, which might add some seasonal tailwinds.
A Note of Caution Amid the Optimism
But it’s not all straightforward. Cappelleri is careful to note that while short-term downward channels within a bigger uptrend are usually positive, the last two breakouts from these channels fizzled out. They just didn’t generate the momentum you’d hope for.
For a really powerful rally to take hold, he wants to see the weekly RSI indicator—a measure of momentum—climb up near 80, like it did during the big moves in 2023 and early 2024. If that happens, he thinks it could open the door for a much larger rise.
Ultimately, Cappelleri sees Bitcoin as more than just a digital asset; it’s a key player in shaping global risk appetite. Its direction, he argues, will continue to be hugely important for stock markets, both in the U.S. and around the world.
Of course, this is just one analyst’s reading of the charts. It’s a perspective, not a promise.
