XRP ETF Odds Jump to 90%—What It Means for Crypto
The chances of a spot XRP ETF launching in the U.S. by the end of 2025 just got a lot higher—at least according to traders. Over on Polymarket, a prediction platform where people bet on real-world events, the odds have shot up to 90%. That’s a 19% jump from earlier estimates, and it’s got people talking.
But here’s the thing: nobody really *knows* if it’ll happen. Markets react to rumors, leaks, and sometimes just gut feelings. Still, when trading volume tops $95,000 on a single prediction, it’s hard to ignore.
Why an XRP ETF Matters
For starters, it’d make XRP way easier to buy. Right now, if you want exposure to it, you’ve got to deal with crypto exchanges, wallets, and all that hassle. An ETF would let investors trade it like a stock—no extra steps. That could pull in more retail money and, maybe more importantly, institutional cash from firms that don’t want to touch crypto directly.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs already dominate, but XRP could carve out its own niche. It’s not just about convenience, though. Approval would signal something bigger: altcoins stepping into the mainstream financial world.
The SEC’s Slow Roll
Of course, nothing’s simple with regulators. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission just pushed back its decision on Franklin Templeton’s proposed XRP ETF by 35 days. They’re also taking comments on a spot Solana ETF from the same firm. Delays aren’t unusual—the SEC loves to take its time—but the timing here feels tense.
Oddly enough, while the U.S. drags its feet, Canada’s already ahead. The 3iQ XRP ETF started trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange this week. It’s a small step, but it shows there’s demand outside American markets.
What Traders Should Watch
If the ETF gets approved, expect volatility. Prices could swing wildly as speculation heats up. Long-term holders might see it differently—more liquidity, maybe steadier prices over time. Either way, hedge funds and big asset managers would likely take a closer look.
The next few months could be messy. Or maybe nothing happens. That’s the thing with crypto: predictions are just educated guesses. But with odds at 90%, it’s probably worth paying attention.
