Following a considerable price correction that commenced in December 2024, Ethereum (ETH) demonstrated a noteworthy market resurgence, returning above the $1,800 mark by the end of April. This recovery in the prominent altcoin could signal a shift in fortunes for investors, given the bullish momentum. Notably, well-known crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci has shared some optimistic perspectives on this development.
In a post on May 2, Kesmeci hypothesized that Ethereum could be on the cusp of a sustained price uptrend, underpinned by the activity of short-term holders. Per the experienced analyst, the quantity of short-term ETH holders or traders is approaching a specific threshold that traditionally signals a long-term price rally.
Within the ETH market, short-term holders are typically defined as wallets or addresses that have recently acquired ETH, generally within the last 155 days. They are often influenced by market trends and price volatility and are predominantly driven by speculation and quick profit-taking rather than long-term conviction.
A spike in short-term investors typically signifies a resurgence in market interest, often attributed to new market entrants. However, Kesmeci maintains that the number of short-term ETH holders, currently standing at 3.92 million, needs to surpass the 4 million mark to suggest that the ETH market has sufficient bullish momentum to sustain a robust uptrend.
It’s worth noting that when the short-term holder numbers previously exceeded 4 million in 2022 and 2024, Ethereum experienced substantial price rallies. Kesmeci suggests that if the number of short-term holders remains below this mark, it could indicate inadequate market demand to maintain Ethereum’s current rally.
Concurrently, the count of Ethereum long-term holders has now reached an impressive 104.24 million, which suggests a strong market conviction in the asset’s future price appreciation potential. An uptick in long-term holders typically reflects coin maturation, as short-term holders decide to hold onto their assets for more than 155 days.
Kesmeci also pointed out that despite the progress in the short-term holder group, Ethereum still lags significantly behind its 365-day simple moving average (SMA 365), indicating that the market bulls are yet to fully assert their dominance.
The SMA 365, as the name suggests, calculates the mean closing price over the past 365 days. It’s a key tool to identify price trends and often acts as a resistance in bearish markets or support in bullish ones. Despite recent market advances, ETH must exceed its SMA 365 of $2,849 to confirm any strong uptrend intentions.
As of press time, Ethereum is trading at $1,835, denoting a 0.80% price decrease in the past day. Meanwhile, the asset’s trading volume has reduced by 15.01%.
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