As the crypto market anticipates another altcoin season, a recent technical analysis of Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) reveals an intriguing comparison between the 2021 and 2025 market cycles. This analysis seeks to predict whether altcoins are on the cusp of a bull run. Historically, Bitcoin Dominance has served as a pivotal barometer for forecasting an altcoin season, as a drop in BTC.D often signifies a shift in investor focus towards alternative cryptocurrencies.
Crypto analyst Luca, on X (formerly Twitter), is questioning whether history is about to repeat itself, as current market trends bear striking resemblance to previous ones. Luca shared two charts demonstrating a parallel between the Bitcoin Dominance market capitalization and the onset of the altcoin season.
The charts display a comparative study of BTC.D market cap during the 2021 and 2025 cycles. The charts reveal an eerily similar pattern that unfolded during the 2021 bull market. At that time, investors were eagerly awaiting the commencement of the altcoin season, right after BTC.D hit a high-timeframe resistance. However, Bitcoin’s dominance defied market expectations and soared above the resistance, triggering a mass altcoin sell-off.
Fast forward to 2025, Luca believes that we are witnessing a rerun of this narrative. When BTC.D fell below the 61% resistance zone, the market anticipated a shift towards altcoins. Contrary to expectations, BTC.D surged higher, causing a mass capitulation of altcoins.
Luca’s Bitcoin Dominance chart pinpoints the resistance zone where BTC.D failed to breakthrough in both 2021 and 2025. In 2021, post the shift, Bitcoin dominance plummeted sharply to the green zone between 58% and 60%. This zone coincided with a significant rally that ignited the altcoin season.
In the 2025 BTC.D chart, Luca identifies the next green zone around 54.56%. If history repeats itself, a drop in BTC.D to this level could trigger a similar rally, heralding the onset of the anticipated altcoin season in this cycle.
Currently, the market is riveted on BTC.D’s next move, which could seal the fate of altcoins in this bull market. The crucial question that remains is whether history will repeat itself or whether the 2025 cycle will chart a new course.
However, crypto analyst Brucer, in another X post, contends that an altcoin season may not materialize in this cycle. He cites three primary reasons for his pessimistic forecast. Firstly, he underlines that previous altcoin seasons were catalyzed by major events like the 2017 ICO boom. Each cycle has unique characteristics and may not necessarily replicate conditions that sparked previous altcoin seasons.
Secondly, Brucer points out that altcoins are currently struggling to recover their previous highs while Bitcoin’s dominance continues its upward trajectory, now surpassing a 60% market cap. Finally, Brucer suggests that unless significant macroeconomic changes occur, an altcoin season in 2025 appears unlikely.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com.
