Understanding Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycles: A Guide for the Curious and the Cautious

It’s December 16, 2024. Bitcoin’s over $100,000.

If you’re feeling a mix of excitement, anxiety, and curiosity right now, you’re not alone. Maybe you’re wondering if this is just the beginning or if it’s too late to jump in. Maybe you’re thinking back to those moments when you almost bought Bitcoin but didn’t — only to watch it soar.

But here’s the thing: Bitcoin isn’t just a random rollercoaster. Its ups and downs follow a surprisingly predictable pattern — one that repeats every four years. If you’ve been confused by the hype, the jargon, and the wild price swings, this guide will help you make sense of it all.

Let’s talk about why Bitcoin seems to rise, fall, and rise again — and how understanding these cycles could change the way you look at crypto forever.

What’s the Deal with These 4-Year Cycles?

Imagine if there was a timer ticking down to the moment when Bitcoin’s supply suddenly became more scarce. That’s not a fantasy — it’s a feature, and it’s called the halving.

Every four years, the number of new Bitcoins created gets cut in half. Fewer new coins = less supply hitting the market. And in a world where demand keeps growing, basic economics tells us this: when something becomes scarcer and people still want it, prices tend to rise.

This isn’t just a theory — it’s happened again and again. Like clockwork.

A Quick Recap of Bitcoin’s Past Cycles

Here’s a walk down memory lane:

1. 2012 Halving
   • Before the Halving: Bitcoin was $12.
   • After the Halving: By 2013, it hit $1,150.
   • People thought: This must be a bubble.
2. 2016 Halving
   • Before the Halving: Bitcoin was $650.
   • After the Halving: By 2017, it soared to $20,000.
   • People thought: It can’t go higher than this.
3. 2020 Halving
   • Before the Halving: Bitcoin was $8,000.
   • After the Halving: By late 2021, it smashed through $69,000.
   • People thought: Maybe this isn’t a bubble.

And now, we’re in the 2024 cycle. The halving happened in April, and here we are in December — Bitcoin’s above $100,000. If history repeats itself, the real fireworks could still be ahead.

Why Does the Halving Matter So Much?

https://twitter.com/brett_eth/status/1865472597942583525

Imagine you’re mining gold, but every four years, the amount of gold you find is cut in half. It suddenly becomes harder to get your hands on new gold. Meanwhile, people still want it. What happens?

The price goes up.

The same thing happens with Bitcoin. The Bitcoin halving event reduces the supply of new coins entering the market through Bitcoin mining. But demand doesn’t disappear. In fact, with more investors, institutions, and countries adopting Bitcoin, demand has been steadily rising.

This scarcity event creates a kind of ticking time bomb for price increases.

So Where Are We in the Cycle Right Now?

Source: https://www.ecoinometrics.com/bitcoins-growth-trajectory-after-the-halving/ 

Let’s talk about today: December 16, 2024.

• The halving happened 8 months ago.
• Bitcoin has climbed past $100,000.
• Institutional investors are pouring in.
• Retail investors are cautiously returning after the brutal bear market of 2022-2023.

If we’re following the same timeline as previous cycles, we’re in the early stages of a bull run. Historically, the biggest price surges happen 12-18 months after the halving. That means 2025 could be the year things really go wild.

But before you start picturing Lambos and beach houses, let’s ground this in reality.

Why Understanding Cycles Matters for YOU

Let’s get real. Crypto can feel like a constant emotional tug-of-war:

• Euphoria when prices go up.
• Despair when prices crash.
• Regret when you didn’t buy sooner.

Understanding Bitcoin’s 4-year cycles helps you step back from the noise. It helps you:

1. Stay Calm During Dips
   • When the bear market comes (and it will), you’ll know it’s just part of the cycle.
2. Avoid FOMO at the Top
   • When everyone’s shouting, “Bitcoin to the moon!” you’ll recognize the signs of a peak.
3. Make a Plan
   • Whether it’s buying during the accumulation phase, taking profits during the bull run, or just holding through the chaos — a plan beats panic every time.

Practical Tips for Navigating Bitcoin Cycles

1. Accumulate When No One Cares
   • The best time to buy isn’t when everyone’s excited — it’s when everyone’s bored. The accumulation phase (after the crash) is when smart investors stack quietly.
2. Take Some Profits During Euphoria
   • When your friends who never talk about crypto start asking how to buy Bitcoin, that’s a sign. Consider taking some profits off the table.
3. Ignore the Noise
   • There will always be sensational headlines. “Bitcoin is dead!” “Bitcoin is going to $1 million!” Stick to your strategy.
4. Educate Yourself
   • The more you understand Bitcoin and its cycles, the less likely you are to make emotional decisions.

What’s Next for 2025?

https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1754431779094601953

If the past is any guide, 2025 could be a year of wild highs. Some analysts are predicting Bitcoin could hit $150,000, $200,000, or even higher till $500,000.

But no one knows for sure. The only thing we do know? Cycles happen. And understanding them gives you an edge.

Whether you’re new to Bitcoin or you’ve been around since the early days, one thing’s clear:
Patience and perspective win the long game.