Semler Scientific’s Bitcoin Bet Narrows Its Valuation Gap
Semler Scientific, a Nasdaq-listed healthcare tech firm, is now valued just a hair above the worth of its Bitcoin holdings. As of Tuesday, the company’s enterprise value—factoring in market cap, debt, and cash—stood at $498.5 million. That’s only 7% higher than the $466 million value of its 4,449 Bitcoin stash.
The metric here is mNAV, or multiple-to-net asset value, which recently sat at 1.07. When that number dips below 1, things get tricky. At that point, a company like Semler can’t realistically issue more shares to buy additional Bitcoin without diluting shareholder value. And right now, they’re cutting it close.
Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, pointed out that Semler isn’t alone in this tight spot. “Many Bitcoin treasury companies may find themselves trading close to NAV soon,” he told *Decrypt*. “The pressure’s on to prove they can manage capital wisely.”
Buying More, But at What Cost?
Earlier this month, Semler dropped $20 million on 185 more Bitcoin, according to regulatory filings. They also hinted at a potential $364 million stock sale through an at-the-market offering. That could help them stack more Bitcoin—if investors play along.
But there’s a catch. If the market starts doubting a company’s ability to raise funds without hurting shareholders, the whole strategy can backfire. Ben Werkman, Swan Bitcoin’s chief investment officer, put it bluntly in a recent interview: “A discount spooks people. They wonder if the firm’s growth model is broken.”
Sigel, though, thinks Semler still has options. “If management prioritizes shareholders, the risk-reward balance isn’t bad here,” he said. On X (formerly Twitter), he suggested safeguards like pausing stock issuance if shares trade too low or buying back shares when Bitcoin rallies.
Not Just a Bitcoin Play
Semler isn’t some fresh-faced crypto enthusiast. They bought their first Bitcoin just last May, joining a trend that’s pulled in everything from cannabis companies to asset managers. But they’ve got other baggage, too.
In April, the company tentatively agreed to a $30 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice over allegations of fraud tied to its QuantaFlo product. Now, Rosen Law Firm is sniffing around for potential securities claims on behalf of shareholders.
Meanwhile, Semler’s stock slid 6.5% on Tuesday, closing at $28.30. They’re still the 10th-largest corporate holder of Bitcoin by value, trailing GameStop by a slim margin. But legacy issues—small market cap, low liquidity, and limited bond issuances—might be dragging them down, Sigel noted.
And then there’s Bitcoin itself. If prices drop sharply, companies like Semler could face pressure to sell, undoing some of this year’s buying momentum. For now, though, they’re walking a tightrope—balancing Bitcoin bets against shareholder patience.
*Edited by James Rubin*
