10x Research, led by its CEO and Head of Research, Markus Thielen, has recently adopted a more conservative outlook towards bitcoin (BTC), following indicators that suggest a possible shift in market conditions. Over the past fortnight, the firm has been questioning whether the Bitcoin bull market has reached its summit, triggering a re-evaluation of the market conditions.
The firm’s recent market update, published on December 29, 2024, recognizes the sustained resilience of the cryptocurrency. However, it points to emerging technical patterns that suggest a potential new phase in the market. Historical patterns from previous bull markets, notably in 2017 and 2019, present a consistent trend: early-month rallies are usually followed by profit-taking towards the end of the month. This trend often serves as a signal for the final stages of a bull market.
In December 2024, a “shooting star” candlestick pattern was observed. This bearish indicator, characterized by a long upper wick and a relatively smaller body, has previously indicated market tops, like in December 2017 and November 2021. Thielen explains that this pattern is a crucial technical signal that “serves as a bearish reversal signal, indicating weakening buying pressure and potential price reversals.”
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $108,364 on December 16, 2024, before retreating to close at $92,000. Analysts at 10x Research underscore the importance of the $90,000–$92,000 support range. If the digital currency breaks below this zone, it could lead to significant declines. However, Thielen’s report also mentions that while there may be an early-month rally in January 2025, another wave of profit-taking by the month-end could confirm that the December 2024 shooting star indeed signaled at least an intermediate top.
Despite these bearish signals, 10x Research and Thielen maintain that the current bull market is not definitively over. However, they caution investors to prepare for heightened volatility entering 2025, with wild rallies and sell-offs expected to characterize the year.
Not all analysts agree with 10x Research’s outlook. The X account Crypto Birb, from The Birb Nest, claims that the bull run is already 80% complete and predicts that “Bitcoin will peak at $225,000+ by June 2025.”
Another X account, Tutor, claims that the Bitcoin bull is currently in its grand finale, citing that we are in the third consecutive bullish year for Bitcoin, which historically denotes the final act of a bull run.
As 2025 dawns, the prospect of a market slowdown appears increasingly likely. Bitcoin investors face a delicate balancing act of riding out potential final rallies and securing profits before a downturn. This delicate dance will require careful risk management and sharp market insight.
While some analysts are predicting a final rally for Bitcoin, others are urging caution, pointing to market patterns that suggest the bull run may be nearing its end. As investors and crypto traders navigate through the increased volatility and shifting trends, maintaining a disciplined approach will be essential to weather any impending market corrections.