Ethereum’s recent run-up has been impressive, no doubt. But according to analyst Benjamin Cowen, a pretty significant pullback might be on the horizon. He’s suggesting the price could retreat to what’s called the 21-week exponential moving average. Right now, that level sits under $3,500.
That’s a drop of more than twenty percent from where it’s trading now, just below $4,400. A lot of people won’t want to hear that, of course. After such a strong performance, the idea of a retracement isn’t exactly welcome news. But Cowen argues this has been the pattern for months.
Following a Familiar Pattern
He points out that this same thing happened back in April. Ethereum surged to a new high, then pulled back to find support at that key 21-week EMA. His view is that we’re about to see a repeat of that exact playbook. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s a pattern he’s watching closely.
And it’s worth noting he’s got a big audience listening. Over a million followers on X pay attention to his charts. So whether you agree with him or not, that kind of prediction can influence market sentiment.
Momentum Seems to Be Stalling
This all comes as ETH’s powerful rally appears to be losing steam. It was on pace for its best third quarter ever, even beating out the famous 2020 “DeFi summer.” But that momentum has clearly faded. The price has been hovering, struggling to break through.
Interestingly, Cowen also mentions the chance of a fakeout. He says ETH might make a sudden, sharp push toward $4,900, only to reverse course quickly. A classic bull trap. He thinks that could happen as soon as this week, which would make any subsequent drop even more dramatic.
Other Factors in the Mix
But it’s not all about technical charts. There are some massive fundamental moves happening, too. A single whale—a large investor—reportedly bought another $1 billion worth of ETH recently. That brings their total stake to a staggering $3.5 billion, all bought and staked in a relatively short period.
And then there are the spot ETFs. These investment funds have been seeing huge inflows. Data from Glassnode shows they added 286,000 ETH just last week. That’s a ton of consistent buying pressure.
So you have these two opposing forces. On one side, a technical analyst predicting a sharp drop based on historical patterns. On the other, massive institutional and whale accumulation that could keep propping the price up. It sets up a real tug-of-war. Which force wins out is anyone’s guess right now. Perhaps the market just needs to catch its breath.
