Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is doubling down on its bullish stance for Bitcoin as the cryptocurrency flirts with its recent all-time high of $111,814. The firm’s latest monthly report, released in May, outlines several key indicators suggesting that Bitcoin’s rally still has room to run—despite some mixed signals in the broader market.
One of the most compelling arguments in ARK’s analysis is the absence of what it calls “irrational exuberance.” Unlike previous cycles where Bitcoin’s price surge was accompanied by extreme profit-taking, the current aggregate unrealized profits—measured against the on-chain cost basis—remain only one standard deviation above the mean. Historically, ARK notes, Bitcoin has needed to hit three standard deviations before entering bubble territory. “This suggests the market is not yet overheated,” the report states, citing Glassnode data.
Another bullish signal comes from the surge in Bitcoin ETF inflows, which have dramatically outpaced those of gold ETFs. While global gold exchange-traded products saw outflows shrink from $9.2 billion to just $1.5 billion in May, Bitcoin ETPs more than doubled, jumping from $2.5 billion to $5.5 billion. This shift underscores a growing institutional preference for Bitcoin as a store of value, a trend ARK has long emphasized in its research.
Technicals also appear supportive. Bitcoin’s key support levels have risen steadily alongside its price, now sitting comfortably between $94,000 and $97,000—well above its 200-day moving average and short-term holder cost basis. This consolidation, ARK argues, reinforces the asset’s resilience even as it tests new highs.
Yet not all signals are positive. The report flags declining transaction volumes and a concerning drop in Bitcoin Core development activity as potential headwinds. GitHub commits for Bitcoin’s core repositories have plummeted to a 10-year low, with just 704 recorded in May—down nearly tenfold since 2021. While ARK interprets this as Bitcoin maturing into a “fixed monetary asset,” skeptics may see it as a sign of stagnating innovation.
Macroeconomic conditions add another layer of complexity. The U.S. housing market, for instance, shows an unusual surge in sellers over buyers—a dynamic ARK views as bearish for risk assets broadly. Meanwhile, rising supply costs and sluggish auto sales present neutral-to-cautious signals for the economy.
None of this seems to dampen ARK’s long-term optimism. Wood and her team have repeatedly made audacious Bitcoin price predictions, including a $1 million target by 2030. Their most aggressive model even suggests a $2.4 million valuation per coin, assuming constrained supply dynamics. Even the firm’s bear case—$500,000 by the end of the decade—implies a nearly fivefold increase from current levels.
As of publication, Bitcoin trades at $109,360, just 2% below its peak. Whether it breaks through or faces a pullback, ARK’s latest analysis makes one thing clear: the firm isn’t backing down from its conviction that Bitcoin’s best days are still ahead.
*Edited by Andrew Hayward*
