Bitcoin just wrapped up its first negative October in six years, leaving everyone wondering if this is the start of a bear market or just a healthy reset before the next leg up. Right now BTC is trading around $104,000, down 1.4% over 24 hours, contributing to a 2.2% drop in total crypto market cap to $3.64 trillion.
The selloff on November 3rd was brutal, with over $1.16 billion in long positions getting liquidated as overleveraged traders got flushed out. But some analysts think this “Red October” might actually be setting the stage for a monster November.
Rachel Lin from SynFutures told Decrypt, “Corrections like this tend to be the midpoint of a broader cycle rather than the end.” Historical data backs up the optimism too; November has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months historically, posting an average 42% return over the past 12 years.
The month’s decline happened against a messy macroeconomic backdrop. Fed Chair Powell announced the end of quantitative tightening and rate cuts, then immediately tempered expectations for December cuts. That uncertainty hammered risk assets like Bitcoin.
The good news is geopolitical tensions have eased after the Trump-Xi agreement de-escalated the trade war, avoiding those threatened 100% tariffs. Lin thinks Bitcoin could stabilize and show cautious optimism in early November before potentially rallying toward $120,000-$150,000 by year-end if it follows typical post-halving patterns.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s first red October in six years is seen as a healthy mid-cycle correction by analysts who target $120,000-$150,000 by year-end, citing historical November strength averaging 42% returns.
Also Read: Ethereum ETFs Gain
