Axel Adler Jr., a renowned crypto analyst, recently shared his take on the current state of the Bitcoin (BTC) market, using the adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (aNUPL) as his primary indicator. His assessment revealed that, despite recent market stagnation, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains bullish, with no immediate indications of a forthcoming trend reversal.
The aNUPL is a critical trading metric in the crypto world. It offers insight into market sentiment and potential price fluctuations. Its uniqueness lies in its ability to adjust the conventional Net Unrealized Profit/Loss by factoring in market behavior over an extended period. This adjustment allows analysts to determine whether investors’ unrealized profits or losses are sustainable or merely a result of speculative actions.
According to Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s aNUPL currently sits at 0.4. This figure points to a significant amount of accumulated profit within the investor pool, signifying a stable yet controlled level of market positivity. This current aNUPL also suggests that Bitcoin is successfully maintaining its bullish momentum. Since September 2024, the cryptocurrency has been on an upward trajectory, establishing a strong bullish structure.
However, it’s important to note that an aNUPL of 0.4 is still quite a distance from the peak levels of 0.7-0.8, observed during the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles. These peak levels are indicative of investor euphoria or greed, usually characterized by an overleveraged market. Adler’s market insights suggest that the Bitcoin market is not currently overheated and could potentially see further growth, barring any unforeseen macroeconomic shifts.
As it stands, Bitcoin is valued at $100,824, following a 1.72% decrease in the last day. The Relative Strength Index of the asset is currently at 50.43, indicating potential for higher price points before hitting the overbought zone. This projection aligns with Adler’s assertions and is further supported by the 100-day simple moving average, which remains significantly below Bitcoin’s price, indicating a classic bullish signal.
In terms of price barriers, Bitcoin faces a psychological resistance at the $106,000 price point. Breaking past this barrier could trigger a return to its current all-time high of $109,114. However, a second rejection at $106,000 could confine Bitcoin to a consolidation phase, which has persisted for the past two weeks.
Despite these short-term challenges, investor sentiment towards Bitcoin remains bullish in the long run. This optimism is driven by historical trends and the crypto-friendly policies of the current administration. Before the bull run concludes, Bitcoin is projected to trade between $150,000 and $350,000. This bullish sentiment, combined with Adler’s insights and the current market indicators, paints an optimistic picture of Bitcoin’s future prospects.
