Well, it looks like Bitcoin’s been on a bit of a rollercoaster again. CryptoQuant, one of the better-known analysis outfits, just dropped a new report. And according to them, Bitcoin managed to push past that $115,200 mark after the latest FOMC meeting. That’s a pretty big number. Even more striking is that a whopping 95% of all Bitcoin supply is currently sitting in profit. That’s a lot of happy holders.
But here’s the catch. The report seems to think holding above that level is… well, everything. If it can’t stay up there, we might see a slide back down. Maybe into the range of $105,500 to, well, back to that $115,200 line. It’s a precarious spot to be in.
Futures Market Sees Squeeze and Shakeout
Ahead of the Fed’s decision, things were getting messy in the futures market. A bunch of short sellers got squeezed out—their bets against the price went wrong. Open interest for perpetual contracts actually hit 395,000 BTC before all this went down. Then it fell back to about 380,000. The weird part is the timing. Those short positions got liquidated *before* the meeting. But then, after the announcement, the price dipped a bit and actually took out some long positions, too. It’s like the market couldn’t make up its mind who to punish.
Options Market Smashes Records
Now, over in options land, things are absolutely wild. Open interest—that’s the total value of outstanding contracts—reached a never-before-seen level: 500,000 BTC. That’s huge. Everyone’s eyes are glued to the September 26th expiration date. It’s being called the largest expiry in market history. And there’s this key level around $110,000 that’s being called the “max pain” point. Where that ends up could really yank the spot price around one way or the other.
A Delicate Balancing Act
So where does that leave us? CryptoQuant’s take is that the market is in a fragile state of balance. The spot market isn’t seeing massive selling, which is good. But a lot of the action and liquidity is being soaked up by perpetual futures, creating this weird equilibrium.
Volatility expectations ticked up before the Fed, as they always do. And some complex dealer positioning suggests there are hedges in place that might both support a rally and soften a fall. It’s a bit of a safety net, perhaps.
In the end, it all seems to hinge on that $115,200 level. If Bitcoin stays above it, the mood might stay optimistic. But with record options open interest, the next few days could be… jumpy. One thing’s for sure—it probably won’t be boring.
*This is, of course, just a look at the data. It’s not a suggestion to buy or sell anything.
