Right now, Bitcoin is sitting at a pretty important level. It’s hovering right around what traders call the Bull Market Support Band. And historically, that’s been a big deal. In past bull runs, this area has acted like a floor. The price tends to dip down, test it, and then bounce back up to continue its climb. It’s a spot that’s worth paying attention to.
A Key Test for Momentum
A trader who goes by Daan Crypto Trades recently pointed this out. He noted that Bitcoin is parked directly on top of that support band. It’s seen as a pretty reliable indicator for the overall market momentum, at least on the higher timeframes.
He mentioned that, sure, Bitcoin has spent a little time consolidating at or even just below this level before. But during a true bull market, it hasn’t ever stayed detached from it for more than a week or two. That’s the key thing to watch.
The broader picture still looks okay, I think. The structure is still one of higher highs and higher lows. As long as that holds, any dips that happen are probably viewed by a lot of investors as chances to buy, not reasons to panic.
Liquidity Could Be a Problem
But there might be some trouble brewing from a different angle. There’s a signal flashing that hasn’t been seen since the cycle lows began: a bearish divergence against the global money supply. Basically, it suggests momentum is slowing down.
An analyst known as Saint Pump is expecting a liquidity pullback in late September. This lines up with what a lot of people think the Fed will do—cut rates because the job market seems to be softening. So you’ve got this technical warning happening at the same time as a potential macroeconomic event.
That mix probably means the shaky price action we’ve seen since July isn’t going away just yet. It could lead to a choppy, volatile period that lasts until global liquidity conditions potentially improve in late October. And October itself is often a tricky month, historically bringing its own selling pressure as four-year cycles wrap up.
The Bigger Picture Isn’t All Bad
Even with that, there aren’t any of the classic signs that point to a major market top. No real euphoria. Interestingly, Saint Pump also suggested that political pressures might actually extend this cycle. The idea is that the administration could push for more economic stimulation, maybe through the Fed, which could keep things going into 2026.
From a chart perspective, if there is a sell-off, a lot of people are looking at the $93,000 to $98,000 zone as a strong area of support. That’s around where a key moving average sits, one that’s held up the trend since last year. So while things might get bumpy for a bit, the overall trend doesn’t seem broken. Not yet, anyway.
*Image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview*
