Well, Bitcoin’s recent bounce from around $107,200 has people talking again. Is the worst over? Or is this just a pause before another drop? It’s hard to say for sure, but one analyst is making a pretty bold call.
Analyst Puts Odds of a Bitcoin Bottom at Over 90%
Independent analyst Astronomer, who goes by @astronomer_zero online, thinks there’s a “90%+” chance the market has already found its local low. This is interesting because he was actually bearish not long ago. He publicly called for a drop from the $123,000 level down to the $110,000–$111,000 zone. And when it got there in late August, he says he flipped to being long.
His confidence doesn’t just come from the price action itself. He points to something he calls his “FOMC reversal confluence” framework. Basically, he’s noticed that Federal Reserve policy meetings have a habit of acting as major turning points for Bitcoin’s price trend.
The FOMC Meeting as a Market Catalyst
He explains that historically, the trend around these meetings reverses either on the day of the announcement or in the few days leading up to it. According to his data, this has happened correctly more than 90% of the time. The idea is that big players—insiders and institutions—tend to position themselves ahead of the event, essentially front-running the news before most retail traders even understand what’s happening.
With the next Fed meeting scheduled for September 18th, he argues that the recent sell-off from $123k to $110k was that move happening early. The low is probably in, he suggests, and the trend has likely already reversed to the upside.
This puts him at odds with a lot of the chatter in crypto circles right now. The popular narrative has been to expect a “red September,” a seasonally weak month. Astronomer calls that view “utter nonsense,” arguing it’s a shallow take that misses how markets actually work. He points out that the last two Septembers have actually been positive for Bitcoin, breaking that old seasonal pattern.
A Measured Dose of Confidence
And so far, the market is moving in his favor. After entering his long position near $110,000, Bitcoin has climbed back above $115,000. He’s already declared the bearish September thesis invalid, noting the month is currently “in the upper historical quartile” for gains.
But here’s the thing—he isn’t throwing caution to the wind. Even with his high conviction, he stresses risk management. He says you should never go all in. Take a decent-sized position, something you can sleep soundly with, because you could always be wrong.
It’s a mix of strong belief and practical humility. With Bitcoin holding these levels and the FOMC meeting just days away, we might not have to wait long to see if he’s right.
